Although the 2020 Census will proceed without a citizenship question, the controversy surrounding the question will likely result in an undercount of Hispanics in the upcoming Census. New research by Child Trends suggests that even a small undercount of Hispanics on the 2020 Census will result in 37 states forfeiting federal funds for five key programs that support children and families. In all three Hispanic undercount scenarios examined in the brief (3%, 6%, and 12% undercounts), Texas, Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Colorado will lose the most federal funding.
The scenarios are based on previous research conducted by the Urban Institute, the U.S. Census Bureau, and Harvard University. Child Trends examines how each scenario will affect the following programs, which account for almost half of all federal funding to states:
- Medicaid (children only)
- The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)
- Title IV-E Foster Care
- Title IV-E Adoption Assistance
- The Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG)
Hispanic participation in the Census will likely be impacted by the debate around the inclusion of a citizenship question on the Census, and, in each state, by the geographic dispersion of Hispanic residents, local or state policies affecting immigrants, and public attitudes toward immigration.